Contents
- Chapter 1. Introduction
- Chapter 2. Some basic concepts
- Concept of an event
- Independence
- Expectation
- Calculation of simple probabilities
- Probability and odds
- Bayes Theorem
- Chapter 3. Counting methods
- Combinations and permutations
- Computation of permutations
- Computation of combinations
- How many aces are out?
- Chapter 4. Concept of a process
- Chapter 5. Some Paradoxes
- Chapter 6. Distributions
- Chapter 11. Mathematical aids to decision making
- Optimization Theory
- Decision Theory
- Game Theory
- Chapter 12. Psychology of Irrational Behavior
- Availability Error
- Chapter 15. Statistics
- What is statistics?
- Chapter 20. General Linear Model
- Basic model
- Influence
- Misc. topics
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Secretary Problem
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Psychology of Irrational Behavior
Availability Error
The Availability Error is the human tendency to make judgments or evaluations based on the first thing that comes to mind. Rather than use an objective criteria we use the criteria that's mentally available at the time.
I talked about the Prisoner's Dilemma earlier. Some experiments in how people approach the Prisoner's Dilemma serve as an example of the Availability Error and how it can be used to manipulate people’s choices.
To review, in the Prisoner's Dilemma two people are have been arrested for a crime. They're guilty. But to get a conviction of the actual crime, instead of a lesser offense, the cops need a confession. They are willing to make a deal, but only for one of them.
If one of them confesses and the other doesn't then the one who confessed goes free and the other gets 20 years.
But if they both confess they'll each get 5 years, nobody goes free.
If they both keep their mouths shut they'll be convicted of a lesser charge and each will get 2 years.
In one experiment the half the subjects where told a heart-touching story of a kidney donation made to a stranger in need. The other hald where told a horrific story of urban depravity. Then when later faced with the Prisoner's Dilemma those who had been told the heart-touching story tended to be more likely to chose cooperation, being more willing to take a chance on cooperation from the other person.
That's the availability Error. They make their choice based on which story someone just told them, not on any attempt at all at rational analysis.
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Alspach's Mathematics and Poker Page Brian Alspach used to write a regular column on combinatorics for Poker Digest. He's a retired math professor from Simon Fraser University. |
Tom Ferguson's home page He's a math ;professor at UCLA and Chris Ferguson's father. |
MathPages.com A collection of straight-forward introductions to various topics in mathematics and recreational mathematics. |
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Kelly betting
These are all somewhat technical articles.- A New Interpretation of Information Rate, by J. L. Kelly, Jr.
- Risk Formulas for Proportional Betting by William Chin and Marc Ingenoso
- An Optimal Betting Strategy for Repeated Games by Gary Gottlieb.
- The proportional Bettor's Return on Investment by S. N. Ethier and S. Tavare'
- An Optimal Betting Strategy for Repeated Games by Gary Gottlieb.