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Basic Probability

Mathematics, Probability and Poker


Contents


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Chance

Chance isn’t something that the human mind seems to deal with very well. Cause has an effect and effect has a cause. That’s the relation that seems to make our minds comfortable and there’s no room for a concept of chance in that straight-forward Aristotelian view of cause and effect.

People have always observed things that could be explained by the concept of chance, but they haven’t always invoked that explanation. For centuries, many centuries, complex events without an obvious cause were explained by reliance on religious explanations, by the invocation of the concept of a Supreme Being. Things didn’t just happen; they happed because God willed them to happen.

You could determine whether or not someone was a witch by casting lots, God would tell you their guilt or innocence by how the dice landed. Don’t laugh. Peoples lives where once held in the balance depending on the outcome of chance events, but nobody was willing to admit that the outcomes hadn’t been predetermined by God.

The development of the concept of chance events was a major intellectual development.



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