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Contents
Gary Carson's sites
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Historical development of probabilityCardano (1501-76) gave some ‘probabilities’ associated with dice throwing. Like all early probabalist his interest in the mathematical concepts of probabilty wasn't just motivated by an interest in mathematics, the primary motivation was an interest in gambling. His short treatise on dice was written sometime in the mid-16th century. But it wasn't actually published until 100 years later, shortly after Pascal and Ferment began their work on the Division of Stakes problem in dice. Then his booklet wasn't translated into English until the 1950's, so he doesn't usually get much credit when the history of probabilty is written about. It was Pascal and Ferment who really get the credit. They developed the ideas of probability a few years later when trying to calculate the value of a dice game that was terminated prior to completion. That was in the mid-1600's. This is kind of an event forumlation of probability. It's a precusor to the current day mathematical problem in poker related to how to make a deal in the late stages of poker tournaments. About 100 years later Thomas Simpson proposed a theory of measurement errors (motivated by the observations of astronomers) for more of a distribution based formulation of probability theory. Reviews of many early works on probability
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